Probability in RPGs

This page give a great run down of probability you should think about when designing systems in simulations. I especially like the graphs you can manipulate.

Short Time Coming

Well, it seems like my long tenure as an RPG blogger on word press didn’t ┬álast long, I won’t be posting any lengthy articles here. But the good news is, I’ll be posting them somewhere else. Join us over at as we try to put together a real attempt at an old-school RPG mag, online. I will still be posting some private thoughts here and probably use this site for some more experimental stuff.

% in Lair

Back in the ancient days of AD&D we had a statistic for how often a monster could be found in its lair. This was an easy guide for DMs to determine if the Remorhaz was likely to be sitting in its icehole or if it was more likely to be out looking for dinner. In the new versions of the game (and its spin offs) the DM can read the monster description a couple times, then find out the information isn’t there, then make some sort of guess. But in the olden days, it was there in the book:


% in Lair: 20%

Have a Remorhaz the party is hunting, did they find it’s lair? Well here is you method to find out if its home. I always played it that if I rolled 10% within the Lair %, the creature wasn’t at home, but was on its way, so maybe the party might find the creature as they are trying to leave. This was always most fun with dragons, as the party thinks they are about to get away with a hoard without a dragon fight.

So what do you think? Does % in Lair need a comeback?